Nate Silver

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And the Oscar Will Go To ...

 And the Oscar 
 Will Go To ... 
Nate Silver Predicts

And the Oscar Will Go To ...

Nate Silver brings cold, hard statistics to movies' biggest night

(Newser) - Nate Silver has quantified baseball, politics, and the Super Bowl (that last one not so successfully )—and now he turns his big geeky brain to the Academy Awards, trying to sort out the signal and the noise for the year's biggest movies in the New York Times . Just...

Nate Silver: I'll Stop if I Start Swaying Elections

Stats whiz says he doesn't want to influence voters

(Newser) - Nate Silver may have cemented his reputation as a political forecaster in the last election, but he doesn't want his reading of the polls to influence flesh-and-blood voters. And if it does, he might pull the plug on his FiveThirtyEight blog , reports Student Life , the college paper at Washington...

Why Rove&#39;s Move Will Backfire
 Why Rove's Move Will Backfire 
Nate Silver

Why Rove's Move Will Backfire

Nate Silver explains the flaw in his logic

(Newser) - Conservative activists and Nate Silver haven't always seen eye-to-eye, but they agree on one thing: Karl Rove's new super PAC backing establishment Republican candidates over Tea Party challengers is a bad idea. Of course, Silver's argument isn't ideological, it's mathematical. The problem, he points out...

History Might Decide to Like Obama Just Fine

For starters, he won a second term: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Neither of Nate Silver's picks even made it to the Super Bowl, but the stats whiz returns his gaze to politics today—specifically how President Obama might rank in history when all is said and done. Yes, he's aware that what Obama does or doesn't do in...

Nate Silver Makes His Super Bowl Prediction

Five Thirty-Eight blogger: Seattle will challenge New England

(Newser) - Betters beware: Number-crunching guru Nate Silver has made his prediction for the Super Bowl. Sitting down at ESPN's First Take , the Five Thirty-Eight blogger forecast a matchup between the New England Patriots and—believe it or don't—the Seattle Seahawks. Silver's hosts didn't question his Pats...

Scarborough to Nate Silver: I'm Sorry, Sorta

Admits Silver was right, but still calls early predictions a 'fool's errand'

(Newser) - Joe Scarborough is ready to give what he calls a "(semi) apology" to pollster Nate Silver. The two tussled over whether Silver's ultimately accurate early election predictions were appropriate in a race that Scarborough felt was "in flux" at the time. But after talking with Silver on...

Nate Silver: GOP Better Adapt to 'New Reality'

Party faces 'structural disadvantage' unless it adjusts

(Newser) - Nate Silver has a right to gloat , but his first post-election blog post at the New York Times resists the urge. Well, mostly: He acknowledges a "very strong night" and links to a glowing CNET review . Silver does, however, admit to getting one thing wrong on election night: Turns...

'Drunk Nate Silver' Is the Best Thing on Twitter Today

Tweets imagine a smashed statistics guru

(Newser) - The most hilarious thing on Twitter right now, according to Gawker —and we have to agree—is the "Drunk Nate Silver" game. Campaign consultant Dan Levitan started it, and now everyone is weighing in, imagining things the statistical guru who correctly called the election might do whilst intoxicated....

How Pundits&#39; Predictions Stacked Up
How Pundits' Predictions Stacked Up

How Pundits' Predictions Stacked Up

Nate Silver nailed it, while Rush, Noonan were way off

(Newser) - The official results from Florida aren't in yet but it looks like Nate Silver—whose blog accounted for a fifth of the New York Times' web traffic Monday—correctly called 50 out of 50 states after getting 49 right in 2008. "You know who won the election tonight?...

20% of Traffic Yesterday? Nate Silver's Blog

FiveThirtyEight says Obama has a huge chance of winning

(Newser) - The New York Times is probably pretty grateful for Nate Silver right now: His controversial FiveThirtyEight blog accounted for 20% of all visits to the newspaper's site yesterday, the New Republic reports. Silver, who has a host of fervent supporters and detractors, got attention with his final election forecast...

Nate Silver: Obama&#39;s Shot at Winning: 91.6%
 Nate Silver: 
 Obama's Shot 
 at Winning: 91.6% 

Nate Silver: Obama's Shot at Winning: 91.6%

Other pundits offer wide range of outcomes

(Newser) - It's Election Day—a day of reckoning not only for the candidates, but for America's pundits, including one recent lightning rod named Nate Silver. Silver's final prediction: President Obama has a 91.6% shot at winning, to Romney's 8.4%, though he emphasizes he expects a...

Nate Silver: Why I&#39;m Right
 Nate Silver: Why I'm Right 

Nate Silver: Why I'm Right

Polling guru explains why his argument is the simplest

(Newser) - Barack Obama's odds of victory ticked up to 80.9% today in Nate Silver's projection model, a fact unlikely to sit well with Silver's growing legion of Republican detractors. While no one is arguing that Mitt Romney is the favorite, some—like Joe Scarborough—are arguing the...

Obama Gains in Swing States
  Obama Gains in Swing States 
Poll Numbers

Obama Gains in Swing States

But he and Romney are dead even nationally

(Newser) - Hurricane Sandy has thrown polling into disarray—Gallup, for instance, has suspended its daily tracking poll—but some data is still trickling in for those desperate for presidential election score updates. Here's what we know today:
  • President Obama has expanded his lead in Michigan, and now leads 48% to

Obama 'Not Worried' About Sandy's Effect on Election

But 'millions of people' will be affected

(Newser) - President Obama is assuring Americans that there has been "extraordinarily close coordination" between state, local, and federal officials in the response to Hurricane Sandy, he said in a press conference this afternoon. But "millions of people are going to be affected," he cautioned. "The most important...

Obama, Romney Are Basically Tied*
 Obama, Romney Are Basically Tied* 
Poll Numbers

Obama, Romney Are Basically Tied*

*But Obama still looks more likely to win the electoral college

(Newser) - If this year's presidential election was determined by the popular vote, it would be anybody's game. A new Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll today has President Obama leading by 1 point—essentially a statistical tie—while Investors Business Daily 's poll has Obama up by 2.3 points. But...

Romney Up by 3 in Gallup; Momentum Slowing?

Latest poll still has him ahead, but by a smaller margin than last week

(Newser) - Mitt Romney's lead over President Obama stands at 3 points in today's Gallup tracking poll, and among registered voters Obama actually leads 48-47. The poll is noteworthy, the Hill explains, because Gallup has lately been much higher on Romney than all the other polls; he was ahead by...

New Poll: Romney Leads Obama 49%-47%

 New Poll: Romney 
 Leads Obama 

New Poll: Romney Leads Obama 49%-47%

GOP ahead $46B in cash race

(Newser) - After an NBC poll found a tie at 47% yesterday, a Politico-George Washington University tracking poll today offers a different take on the presidential race that has Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 47% nationally. It's the first time since early May that Romney has led in the...

Sorry, GOP: Polls Aren&#39;t Biased
 Sorry, GOP: Polls Aren't Biased 

Sorry, GOP: Polls Aren't Biased

Also, a rundown of the latest polls

(Newser) - The GOP has spent a lot of time lately decrying the bias driving polls that show President Obama opening up a lead over Mitt Romney, but Nate Silver takes a look at how final polls have historically performed against results, and finds that while they have occasionally missed the mark,...

Obama&#39;s Lead Is Starting to Look Real
 Obama's Lead Is 
 Starting to Look Real 
Nate Silver

Obama's Lead Is Starting to Look Real

Nate Silver's model shows the president's chance of victory is strong

(Newser) - President Obama has been doing very well in the polls lately—and it's looking less and less like the product of a post-convention bounce. According to the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, Obama now has a 76.1% chance of winning reelection, up from 75.2% on Wednesday, Nate Silver writes...

Not Much Post-Convention Bounce for Mitt
 Not Much 
 Bounce for Mitt 
Nate Silver

Not Much Post-Convention Bounce for Mitt

Poll changes mostly just 'noise,' says Nate Silver

(Newser) - Just days after the end of the Republican National Convention, it looks like Mitt Romney's "bounce" is pretty modest, writes Nate Silver for the New York Times . Rasmussen's poll produced the best result, giving Romney a five-point swing and a three-percentage-point lead now. Ipsos now has Romney...

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