Nate Silver

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Nate Silver: Three Wildcards Will Have Big Role on Tuesday

Polling errors, turnout gap, and candidate quality are the X factors ahead of Election Day

(Newser) - On the eve of Election Day, the FiveThirtyEight forecast has numbers that won't surprise anyone who's been following political coverage. The site gives Republicans an 83% chance of taking the House and a 54% chance of taking the Senate. The site's Nate Silver, however, runs through three...

Nate Silver: Things Are Looking Up for Democrats
Nate Silver: Things Are
Looking Up for Democrats

Nate Silver: Things Are Looking Up for Democrats

Statistician sees a stronger chance of party holding onto the Senate

(Newser) - Three months ahead of the midterms, statistician and FiveThirtyEight creator Nate Silver has sensed a shift in the polls. According to his midterm forecast , there’s been a “consistent movement toward Democrats” in the last month. They now have a 55% chance of holding the Senate, an 8-point rise...

Election Feature That 'Triggered' Dems Is Gone

America can say goodbye to 'the Needle'

(Newser) - The one thing most likely to conjure nightmares of the 2016 election night for opponents of President Trump is the Needle, the AP reports. A graphic on the New York Times ' website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes...

New Analysis Sees GOP With Safe Senate Margin
Democratic Surge Isn't
Translating to Senate

Democratic Surge Isn't Translating to Senate

FiveThirtyEight sees Republicans with strong chance of retaining control

(Newser) - The latest analysis from about how the midterms will affect the Senate is good news for Republicans. The forecast gives the GOP a 67% chance of retaining control. Despite an expected strong performance by Democrats in House elections—one that could easily result in their party taking over...

These Few Correctly Picked Trump, and Were Ignored
These Few Correctly Picked
Trump, and Were Ignored
the rundown

These Few Correctly Picked Trump, and Were Ignored

Vindication for LAT/USC poll

(Newser) - One of the most common questions being asked Wednesday is how pollsters and pundits managed to be so wrong about Donald Trump. Well, not everybody was wrong:
  • The Los Angeles Times/University of South California tracking poll consistently had Trump in the lead through the final months, often to much derision.

Things Are Getting a Little Heated Over Election Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver goes on Twitter rant against Huffington Post

(Newser) - Nate Silver just unloaded on the Huffington Post after HuffPo writer Ryan Grim accused Silver of skewing polls to favor Donald Trump. HuffPo is currently predicting an almost certain victory for Hillary Clinton—two days before the election, it's calling a 98.3% chance for a Clinton victory. Silver'...

Think Trump Can't Win? Think Again
Think Trump Can't
Win? Think Again

Think Trump Can't Win? Think Again

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver lays out the scenarios—and Trump's 'no longer really a long shot'

(Newser) - A national poll showed Donald Trump slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, though, as Nate Silver points out at FiveThirtyEight , cherry-picking polls isn't necessarily indicative of an overall trend: Per the FiveThirtyEight model that analyzed a whole slew of surveys, Clinton appears to still be in the lead...

Nate Silver: Race Is Shifting Toward Trump
Nate Silver
Has Bad News
for Hillary Clinton

Nate Silver Has Bad News for Hillary Clinton

At Ohio rally, Trump questions Clinton's stamina

(Newser) - Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has gone over the latest polls, and he's not sure whether they are terrible news for Hillary Clinton or merely bad. One "scary result" for Clinton is a poll that shows Donald Trump with a 5-point lead in Ohio, he writes, though others show...

Hillary's Chances of Winning, per Nate Silver: 79%

Though he concedes 'there's a lot of football left to be played'

(Newser) - If you're looking for odds on what's going to happen in Election 2016, you can ask a Las Vegas bookie or Nate Silver. And according to what the numbers whiz told George Stephanopoulos on Wednesday's Good Morning America , Hillary Clinton has an almost 80% chance...

Nate Silver: GOP Has 4 Roads Out of Iowa
Nate Silver: GOP Has
4 Roads Out of Iowa

Nate Silver: GOP Has 4 Roads Out of Iowa

The biggest surprise would be something normal

(Newser) - The Iowa caucuses are here, and Nate Silver, who wasn't expecting Donald Trump to still be leading the GOP field at this stage, still thinks he could be knocked off his perch. At , the predictions whiz outlines four possible results in Iowa—and four ways the media...

Iowa Paper to Trump: Get Out, 'Feckless Blowhard'

'Des Moines Register' says real estate mogul has 'polluted' our political process

(Newser) - The Des Moines Register, the publication Politico calls "Iowa's most influential newspaper" doesn't think Donald Trump should be in the race, period, and that he should "pull the plug on his bloviating side show." An editorial published last night says Trump's concentration on his...

Nate Silver: Our Political Polls Are in Lousy Shape

UK elections are just the latest example, he writes

(Newser) - Polls predicted a close election in the UK, and the polls were dead wrong . What happened? "The World May Have a Polling Problem," asserts the headline of a post by poll-assessing whiz Nate Silver at . His site's forecast, based on those lousy polls, was way...

Stat Team's New Goal: Find Best Burrito in US

Nate Silver and crew are on the case

(Newser) - Thanks to his work in sports and politics, Nate Silver has become something of a rock-star statistician. Now, he's applying his number-crunching skills to a new project: food. Specifically, burritos. Members of his team at are working to determine the best burrito in the United States, and...

Stats Whiz Nate Silver Moving to ESPN

He'll likely be an Olbermann contributor

(Newser) - Nate Silver, celebrity political statistician and former baseball analyst, has just thrown the New York Times a curveball: He's departing his longtime home at the paper for a gig at ESPN. Nate Silver's contract at the Times, where he soared to fame for his election predictions, is due...

Nate Silver: GOP Could Take Senate
 Nate Silver: GOP 
 Could Take Senate 

Nate Silver: GOP Could Take Senate

Suddenly, it looks like a coin flip

(Newser) - Harry Reid might want to think carefully before revising the filibuster rules —because there's a decent chance he'll soon be on the other end of them. Nate Silver at the New York Times has crunched the race-by-race numbers, and based on them and his own best guesses...

After Rulings, Gay Marriage Access to Double

Within a year, it's available to 59M more people: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Nate Silver is illuminating the Supreme Court's gay marriage rulings with his usual statistical wizardry. Some 59 million Americans who lacked access to legal gay marriage last August will have it by the time this August comes around. Early last year, just 35 million Americans lived in regions where...

Nate Silver: Bachmann's Exit Great for GOP

Stats guru thinks Democrats now less likely to take the district

(Newser) - We told you yesterday that Democrats would rue the day Michele Bachmann threw in the towel , but now Nate Silver has crunched the numbers to confirm it. In his New York Times blog, Silver plots out Democratic House candidates' performance alongside how well President Obama fared in that district. Bachmann'...

2 More Red-State Democrats 'Evolve' on Gay Marriage

But don't expect many more flips, says Nate Silver

(Newser) - Add two more senators to the list of gay-marriage "evolvers" —North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp and Indiana's Joe Donnelly said today that they support same-sex marriage, reports the Huffington Post . Both are Democrats from conservative states and both are safe from re-election campaigns until 2018. "The...

Nevada Bill Would Legalize Betting on Elections

Hey, other countries vote on our elections, lawmaker argues

(Newser) - Nate Silver is about to make a bunch of money if Tick Segerblom gets his way. The Nevada state senator introduced a bill this week that would legalize gambling on federal elections, Fox News reports. While that's not legal anywhere in the country right now, Segerblom notes that it'...

Nate Silver: We'll Have Gay Marriage Before 2020

Support has been rising steadily for 9 years, he finds

(Newser) - The second of two landmark gay rights cases is before the Supreme Court today, but supporters of marriage equality can take heart even if the decisions don't go their way, says New York Times stats whiz Nate Silver. Support for gay marriage hasn't surged recently, he finds, but...

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