China just logged a trade gap so big it rewrites the record books: a $1.19 trillion surplus in 2025, the largest ever reported even after adjusting for inflation. Beijing's customs agency said the surplus—the difference between what China sells abroad and what it buys—jumped 20% from 2024. While tariffs imposed by the Trump administration cut China's surplus with the US by 22%, the New York Times reports Chinese exporters more than made up for it by ramping up sales to Europe, Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. In some cases, goods were routed through third countries to reach the US while skirting tariffs. More:
- The imports factor: The record haul reflects not just booming exports but also weak imports. China has been pushing "national self-reliance," as the Times puts it, swapping foreign products for locally made ones. Meanwhile, falling household wealth has further dragged down demand for imported cars, cosmetics, and other goods.
- Specifics: CNN reports there was a particular surge in exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products like solar panels; that category was up 27%. Exports of high-tech goods, which encompasses high-end machine tools and industrial robots, jumped 13%.
- Specifics II: Africa saw the biggest year-over-year jump in exports with a 26% rise; the Association of Southeast Asian nations were up 13%, while the EU and Latin America were up 8% and 7%, respectively, reports the Wall Street Journal.
- The outlook: The Journal reports that "some economists believe it could be difficult for China to reprise such strong export growth in 2026. The chaotic on-again, off-again US tariffs last year sparked frontloading of orders that accounted for some of China's export rush. Still, many analysts don't expect China's export prowess to weaken anytime soon."
In December, China became the first global economy with a
trade surplus north of $1 trillion.
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