Iran May Have Miscalculated With Its Initial Response

It came as no surprise this weekend when Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Israel after the joint US-Israeli attack began. But Tehran went well beyond that by striking eight of its neighbors as well. "The apparent calculation was that, by targeting rich Persian Gulf monarchies that hold sway with the Trump administration, Tehran could force Washington and Israel into a rapid de-escalation," writes Yaroslav Trofimov in the Wall Street Journal. Instead, what the strategy seems to have done is strengthen Gulf states' resolve to confront Iran.

Initially, these states publicly opposed the US-Israeli assault on Iran, but the sentiment shifted once Iran began shelling them. William Wechsler of the Atlantic Council, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense, sums it up in succinct fashion: "Many people in the Gulf woke up Saturday pissed off at the United States and Israel, and went to sleep pissed off at Iran," he tells the Journal.

At the Atlantic, Graeme Wood senses a similar shift. Saudi Arabia, for instance, declined to let its airspace be used for the US-Israeli operation, but came under attack from Iran anyway. It then condemned Iran's "cowardly" strikes, as did other neighbors. "Together they leave little doubt that the countries have moved away from the camp of 'strongly worded letter to the homeowners' association' and toward the camp of arson," writes Wood. "These countries once wondered whether Iran could be appeased and contained. Now they do not." In that sense, the weekend has been clarifying for these nations, and not in a way that bodes well for Tehran, he writes.