Nate Silver – News Stories About Nate Silver - Page 4

Nate Silver

Sep 29, 2011 7:37 AM CDT

Stats Can't Explain Sox Collapse

It was spectacularly unlikely

(Newser) - “It’s hard to describe how epic the Red Sox collapse was,” writes Nate Silver in the New York Times , calling it statistically like Bill Buckner’s famous botched play of 1986 “multiplied by itself two or three times over." On Sept. 3, the Red Sox...

Hurricane Irene:
And the Cost to
NYC Will Be...?

nate silver

Aug 26, 2011 1:59 PM CDT

Hurricane Irene: And the Cost to NYC Will Be...?

A 'bank shot' striking NYC would cost around $35B: Nate Silver

(Newser) - If Hurricane Irene rolls into New York City—the nation's most densely populated area—it could threaten millions of lives, but also cost tens of billions of dollars and "tangibly increase the chance of a recession," Nate Silver writes on the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog. "...

S&P's Ratings
Are Worthless

Nate Silver

Aug 8, 2011 12:45 PM CDT

S&P's Ratings Are Worthless

Nate Silver runs the numbers, and scoffs at ratings firm

(Newser) - Don’t put too much stock in Standard & Poor’s much ballyhooed credit ratings—because they’re astonishingly bad. Nate Silver of the New York Times ran an analysis on S&P’s ratings from five years ago, and found that, had you heeded them, they “would have...

Crash May Have Been Worse Than Thought

nate silver

Aug 4, 2011 12:57 PM CDT

Crash May Have Been Worse Than Thought

Nate Silver sees bad things in long-term GDP graph

(Newser) - Need a pick-me-up given today's depressing stock news ? Then be advised that Nate Silver's column in the New York Times is not for you. The stats guru plots GDP going back to 1877 and sees signs that our recent "economic crash was even worse than economists...

Obama Could
Have Gotten
a Better Deal

Nate Silver

Aug 2, 2011 7:35 AM CDT

Obama Could Have Gotten a Better Deal

Nate Silver says the vote tally shows the Republicans cleaned up

(Newser) - The debt ceiling deal President Obama struck with Republicans passed the House by a wide margin, which leads Nate Silver to one conclusion: Obama gave up too much. “Mr. Obama could have shifted the deal tangibly toward the left and still gotten a bill through without too much of...

Here's the Odds for Top 4 GOP Candidates

Betting Odds for Top 4
GOP Candidates

NATE SILVER

Jun 24, 2011 7:50 AM CDT

Betting Odds for Top 4 GOP Candidates

It's Romney, Pawlenty, Perry, and Bachmann (in that order): Nate Silver

(Newser) - With the GOP candidates for 2012 out of the gates, statistics whiz Nate Silver sets the odds in the first of a 3-part series for the New York Times . The longshots will be looked at in later installments. His top four:

Mitt Romney: 3-2 against—a 40% chance of winning

...

Governors Have a Big Advantage in Primaries

Nate Silver

Jun 15, 2011 1:58 PM CDT

Governors Have a Big Advantage in Primaries

Nate Silver breaks down the statistics

(Newser) - Conventional wisdom states that governors have an advantage over senators in presidential primaries—but Nate Silver decided to run the statistics just to be sure. The result? “The advantage may be even more powerful than you think,” he writes on his FiveThirtyEight blog at the New York Times....

If Trump Is on Top,
GOP Needs Fresh Blood

nate silver

Apr 13, 2011 2:09 PM CDT

If Trump Is on Top, GOP Needs Fresh Blood

Maybe it's time for Chris Christie or Paul Ryan to take another look: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Attention Chris Christie, or maybe Paul Ryan? Donald Trump's strong showing in recent polls illustrates just how shaky the GOP's 2012 field is, writes Nate Silver at the New York Times . He breaks the candidates into three groups: The Fairfax Five (think establishment candidates) of Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman, Barbour, and...

How Nate Silver Fills Out
His NCAA Bracket

March Madness

Mar 14, 2011 3:54 PM CDT

How Nate Silver Fills Out His NCAA Bracket

Famed political, baseball analyst winds up picking all the 1-seeds

(Newser) - Nate Silver is a famed political number-cruncher, and was once a revered baseball statistician. So when he goes to fill out his March Madness bracket, he doesn’t just pick whichever names sound good. Instead, the New York Times writer has analyzed data from all the tournament games dating back...

Sorry, HuffPo Bloggers,
You're Not Worth Anything

NATE SILVER

Feb 13, 2011 6:41 AM CST

Sorry, HuffPo Bloggers, You're Not Worth Anything

Stats guru Nate Silver does the math on HuffPo's bloggers

(Newser) - Huffington Post bloggers should stop whining about their lack of pay , even after the online site was bought by AOL for $315 million—they're just not worth it, writes stats king Nate Silver at the New York Times . Silver crunched the numbers and estimates that the median blog post is...

Come 2012,
Follow These Polls

nate silver

Nov 5, 2010 10:23 AM CDT

Come 2012, Follow These Polls

Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA tops for accuracy, finds Nate Silver

(Newser) - Now that the dust has settled, whose polls were the best predictors of the actual midterm results? Nate Silver ranks them by accuracy and party bias over the last 21 days of the election cycle. The most accurate, according to his calculations: Quinnipiac, which “showed little bias,” he...

How Dems Could
Keep the House

nate silver

Nov 2, 2010 7:59 AM CDT

How Dems Could Keep the House

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(Newser) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:...

No Way to
Predict Size of
GOP Gains

nate silver

Nov 1, 2010 12:35 PM CDT

No Way to Predict Size of GOP Gains

'Strange election' offers wide range of outcomes, says Nate Silver

(Newser) - Polls are showing a huge range of possible results for tomorrow, with generic ballots suggesting anything from a 15-point Republican lead to a 3-point Democratic lead. “The fact is that there’s not really any way to say who’s right,” writes FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver in...

Democrats
Pick Up Steam
in Senate Races

Nate Silver

Oct 14, 2010 1:27 PM CDT

Democrats Pick Up Steam in Senate Races

Reid and Angle a tossup, Manchin and Murray now favored

(Newser) - After a several straight losing weeks, the Democrats gained ground in the battle for the Senate this week, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Based on 100,000 simulations, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight prediction model now gives the GOP just an 18% chance to take the Senate, down...

O'Donnell Win Ruins Odds
of GOP Takeover

Nate Silver

Sep 17, 2010 7:24 AM CDT

O'Donnell Win Ruins Odds of GOP Takeover

Forecasting model gives them just a 15% chance

(Newser) - Just how much did Christine O’Donnell’s win hurt the Republicans’ cause? A lot, says forecasting savant Nate Silver of the New York Times . According to Silver’s model, the chances of a Republican Senate takeover have plummeted from 26% to just 15%. Based on current polls, Silver gives...

Why New York's Tea Party Win Matters

Opinion Roundup

Sep 15, 2010 1:58 PM CDT

Why New York's Tea Party Win Matters

Carl Paladino may be even more trouble for GOP than O'Donnell

(Newser) - Christine O'Donnell got the most press (click here to see) but tea party favorite Carl Paladino's win in New York might have been an even bigger upset. Here's what the pundits are saying:

“The Republican Party of New York is now officially dead,” writes Dan Collins of the

...

What O'Donnell's Win Means

Opinion Roundup

Sep 15, 2010 7:52 AM CDT

What O'Donnell's Win Means

Pundits make sense of the morning after

(Newser) - Christine O'Donnell's primary victory has rocked the political world. Here's what the pundits are saying:

Delaware native Dave Weigel “cannot remember a time when Mike Castle wasn't being elected to something.” Without his cross-party appeal, the GOP is doomed in Delaware, he writes in Slate . “No one

...

GOP Likely
to Control 30
Governors' Seats

NATE SILVER

Sep 4, 2010 9:08 AM CDT

GOP Likely to Control 30 Governors' Seats

National wind could boost Republicans' chances locally

(Newser) - Republicans are smelling blood in the November elections, and part of the bleeding is likely to come from governors' mansions across the country, writes Nate Silver over at what used to be FiveThirtyEight.com. The GOP could well end up in control of 30 governors seats—up from its current...

Ousting Murkowski Is
a Huge Coup for Tea Party

Analysis

Sep 1, 2010 8:50 AM CDT

Ousting Murkowski Is a Huge Coup for Tea Party

There's little danger of a general election backlash

(Newser) - Tea Party candidates have been accused of hurting Republican chances in some races, but in ousting Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski it’s “on much firmer tactical ground,” writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . Murkowski’s not an “authentically moderate senator such as Olympia Snowe and...

Democrats' Grip
on Senate
Getting
Shakier

Nate Silver

Aug 26, 2010 2:31 PM CDT

Democrats' Grip on Senate Getting Shakier

There's a 20% chance they'll lose control

(Newser) - All of a sudden, the Democrats’ grip on the Senate is looking a whole lot more tenuous. According to Nate Silver’s latest number-crunching, there’s a 20% chance the Democrats will lose the Senate outright. Even if they hang on as expected, they’re likely to take heavy losses,...