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No Way to Predict Size of GOP Gains
 No Way to 
 Predict Size of 
 GOP Gains 
nate silver
Nov 1, 2010 12:35 PM CDT

No Way to Predict Size of GOP Gains

'Strange election' offers wide range of outcomes, says Nate Silver

(Newser) - Polls are showing a huge range of possible results for tomorrow, with generic ballots suggesting anything from a 15-point Republican lead to a 3-point Democratic lead. “The fact is that there’s not really any way to say who’s right,” writes FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver in...

Aussie Election Rivals in Dead Heat

'The closest election in 50 years'

(Newser) - The top candidates for Australian prime minister are stuck in a statistical dead heat ahead of tomorrow's federal election. Both hopefuls—Prime Minister Julia Gillard of the Labor party and opposition leader Tony Abbott, who represents a center-right coalition—campaigned through the night to earn an edge. "I think...

Reid Closes Gap to Virtual Dead Heat

Senate leader now within 3 points of Sharron Angle

(Newser) - Republican fears that Sharron Angle is too extreme of a candidate to take down a vulnerable Harry Reid may be coming true: The latest Rasmussen poll shows her lead down to 3 points (46% to 43%), within the poll's margin of error, reports the Las Vegas Review-Journal . She led by...

Another Poll Spells Trouble for Obama, Democrats

Democracy Corps survey finds 55% think president is socialist

(Newser) - Writing in the New Republic , William Galston unveils the results of a most recent Democracy Corps poll taken on the public's perception of President Obama. The left-leaning polling firm, headed by James Carville and Stan Greenberg, found that 55% of those questioned agreed that "Obama is a socialist,"...

Illinois Primary Could Muffle Tea Party Buzz

Moderate favored over 2 conservatives in today's Senate vote

(Newser) - If polls prove accurate, moderate Mark Kirk will emerge victorious from today’s Republican Senate primary in Illinois, beating out two more conservative candidates with tea party backing. His victory would put a dent in the tea party panic gripping the GOP, says Talking Points Memo . Republicans in states including...

Poll: Grouchy Public Sticks With Obama

Glum nation pessimistic about economy, wars

(Newser) - America's mood has crashed hard after the euphoria that greeted Barack Obama's inauguration: A recent poll shows the country in a pessimistic funk as the president struggles to revive the economy and fight two wars abroad. But Americans haven't lost all faith in Obama: His approval stands at 54%, no...

Afghan Elections a Setback for Women

Low female turnout could mean leaders even less responsive to women

(Newser) - For women, Afghanistan's recent elections appear to have been more of a setback than a step forward. Early reports strongly suggest that voter turnout fell more sharply for women than for men in last week's polls. Election observers blame Taliban attacks, a dearth of female election workers, and the closure...

Dems' 2010 Prospects Start to Dim

 Dems' 2010 
 Prospects 
 Start to Dim 
ANALYSIS
Jul 29, 2009 9:16 AM CDT

Dems' 2010 Prospects Start to Dim

Economy plagues party whose future looked brighter months ago

(Newser) - Things looked rosy for the Democrats in January—but amid economic concerns and trouble for party governors, 2010 could be tougher than expected, Politico reports. Midterm elections typically favor the opposition, and “we don’t have the burden of Iraq as we did in 2006 and don’t have...

Obama's Poll Numbers Dive
 Obama's Poll 
 Numbers Dive 
Jul 21, 2009 9:57 AM CDT

Obama's Poll Numbers Dive

(Newser) - The public is rapidly losing faith in President Obama, new polls show. His overall approval rating is below 60%—a USA Today/Gallup poll gives him 55%, putting him 10th among the 12 post-World War II presidents after six months in office. A Public Trust Monitor/Politico survey finds 54% trust Obama,...

Obama's Independent Support Wanes

Pollster cites political 'sea change'

(Newser) - Though his overall approval rating remains sturdy, President Obama is losing support among independents, particularly in swing states, polls show. “This is a huge sea change that is playing itself out in American politics,” says a Democratic pollster. Obama fell 6 points last week from the week before...

Most Caffeinated American Cities

(Newser) - Tampa residents are the nation’s most caffeinated—and in the deepest denial about their addiction, reports Reuters. Though tops in ingesting caffeine-based pain relievers, "respondents in Tampa rank number one in saying they're least likely to be addicted to caffeine," said a rep for the company that...

Obama's Halo Undimmed by Blago: Poll

Voters want more info about prez-elect's involvement in scandal

(Newser) - The Rod Blagojevich scandal has done little to dent Barack Obama’s approval ratings, according to ABC’s polling guru: More than three-quarters of those surveyed give his handling of the transition a thumbs-up. But just 51% say Obama has done enough to explain his team’s discussions with the...

5 Predictors in Georgia Runoff
 5 Predictors in Georgia Runoff 
ANALYSIS
Dec 2, 2008 1:31 PM CST

5 Predictors in Georgia Runoff

(Newser) - If Saxby Chambliss defeats Jim Martin in the Georgia Senate runoff today, Democratic hopes of a 60-seat majority will be dashed, Politico reports. Here are five things to look for as voters go again to the polls.
  • Turnout: Martin's hopes ride on higher than average black participation, which happened Nov.
...

Your Hour-by-Hour Guide to Election Night

What to watch for as the clock ticks on

(Newser) - Tonight’s election promises to end before bedtime, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be drama. Nate Silver breaks down which polls close when, and what to watch for.
  • 6pm: Indiana and Kentucky: Usually these get called red right away, but this year Indiana is a toss-up.
  • 7pm:
...

McCain's Chances Slimmer Than Ever: Silver
McCain's Chances Slimmer Than Ever: Silver
Analysis
Nov 1, 2008 10:48 AM CDT

McCain's Chances Slimmer Than Ever: Silver

But tightening Pennsylvania polls provide lone bright spot

(Newser) - John McCain is hanging by a pretty thin thread, writes statistics guru Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com, and that thread is Pennsylvania. Two polls show a slight narrowing in Keystone country; one shows Obama’s lead down to 10 points, while another, right-leaning poll puts it at 5. But with...

Why Is Obama in Front? It's All About the Debates
Why Is Obama in Front?
It's All About the Debates
analysis
Oct 31, 2008 10:33 AM CDT

Why Is Obama in Front? It's All About the Debates

Americans reassured by "risky" candidate's cool performance

(Newser) - To many pundits, the debates are forgotten, a thing of the past—but it’s quite possible they are the key to Barack Obama’s dominance in the polls, writes Robert G. Kaiser in the Washington Post. Before the debates, Obama was seen as a risky unknown. But having seen...

No, Matt Drudge, the McCain Gap Isn't Closing
No, Matt Drudge, the
McCain Gap Isn't Closing
ANALYSIS
Oct 31, 2008 7:31 AM CDT

No, Matt Drudge, the McCain Gap Isn't Closing

FiveThirtyEight's Silver smacks down "tightening polls" narrative

(Newser) - Calm down, writes Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. There's no need to panic over a couple of polls, trumpeted by Drudge, showing the race tightening. “Man, I thought I trained you guys better than this,” he notes. One, the Mason-Dixon poll, shows Obama up by only 4 in...

23% of Texans Say Obama Is Muslim

Fraction under mistaken impression much greater than 5-10% nationally: poll

(Newser) - Nearly a quarter of Texas voters still believe Barack Obama is a Muslim, the Houston Chronicle reports. Polling shows 23% of registered voters there buy internet-fueled rumors the Democrat is hiding his Islamic faith—compared to just 5-10% of voters nationwide. The same poll gives John McCain a comfortable lead...

Jews Favor Obama, Survey Says, But ...

... by a thinner margin than they supported fellow Dem Kerry in '04

(Newser) - Barack Obama has a big lead among Jewish voters, according to a survey by the American Jewish Committee. But his 57% support, to 30% for John McCain and 13% undecided, is “a bit lower than one would expect,” a group exec tells VOA News. At this time in...

Don't Let the Polls Dictate Your Vote: Rove
Don't Let the Polls Dictate Your Vote: Rove 
OPINION
Oct 30, 2008 8:14 AM CDT

Don't Let the Polls Dictate Your Vote: Rove

Don't let the polls dictate your vote, writes Bush's brain

(Newser) - With the explosion of polls in this presidential election—almost as many national polls this month as there were during all of 2004—there's a real risk that polls themselves will drive behavior in the voting booth, Karl Rove writes in the Wall Street Journal, urging voters not to let...

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