Don't Get Too Excited Over Just One Poll

It's too early to tell if bump in support for reform will stick

By Harry Kimball, Newser Staff

Posted Mar 24, 2010 1:43 PM CDT

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Don't Get Too Excited Over Just One Poll — Twenty two pens are seen as President Barack Obama signs the health care reform bill in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, March 23, 2010. Multiple pens are used to sign legislation, and then distributed to supporters of the legislation. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

Much ado has been made over yesterday's Gallup poll, which showed 49% in favor of the health care bill to 40% opposed, but Republicans shouldn't freak out just yet, writes Nate Silver. Yes, it shows a big increase in support for reform, but it's just one poll, "and even if the bounce is real, it may very well evaporate," he writes at FiveThirtyEight.

Silver runs down the various factors that could affect the long-term approval numbers, including the possibility that some of the bump is the result of emotions running high after passage. "Here's my best guess: I think most of the bounce among Democrats will actually stick, but that most of the bounce among independents (and Republicans) will fade." (More Nate Silver stories.)

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