On Last Day of Supreme Court Term, a Ruling 'for the Ages'

Monday's the day that the US Supreme Court wraps up its current term, and the cases are expected to start dropping at 10am ET, per NBC News. Likely set for last will be the blockbuster decision in the presidential immunity case, which will rule on whether Donald Trump can claim immunity from being criminally prosecuted for actions he took while president in trying to reverse the 2020 election. Trump has a four-count federal indictment looming from special counsel Jack Smith, with critics upset that the high court has taken so long to issue a ruling.

• Trump's argument: The former commander in chief claims that much of what he did to overturn the election, a push that resulted in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots, was under the purview of his official duties as president, meaning he can't be prosecuted, as those were "official" acts. Smith disagrees, noting that if what Trump says were true, that would mean presidents are above the law—exactly what the Founding Fathers didn't want. Two lower courts have sided with the special counsel.

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• Outcome: Politico notes the three main scenarios that could result on Monday—the Supreme Court could rule Trump is immune from all of Smith's indictment, effectively ending the case against him (seen as the least likely outcome); issue a "mixed-bag" ruling of partial immunity, perhaps including a legal test to determine when a presidential act is "official" and when it's a private action; or allow the case to go to trial.
• Timeline: Even if the Supreme Court rules against Trump and gives the thumbs-up for a trial, that trial might not start until September—and may in turn run for up to three months, which would stretch past November's election. And if Trump wins that election, he could simply direct the Justice Department to shut the case down once he gets back into the Oval Office.
• Before the election? USA Today notes there is a slim chance a greenlit trial could be completed ahead of Nov. 5, but that's only if every piece falls into place perfectly and isn't delayed by further appeals or other roadblocks.
• Trump's other criminal trials: Two more are pending. The first is the classified documents case in Florida, which has been put on hold indefinitely over pretrial arguments on allowable evidence. The second is the Georgia indictment on election racketeering charges, which doesn't have arguments set until early October. Trump has already been convicted on 34 felony counts in a fourth trial over falsifying business records.
• History in the making: The Supreme Court justices are cognizant of just how big of a deal the immunity case is. "We're writing a rule for the ages," Justice Neil Gorsuch noted in April during oral arguments, per Politico. As for the other three cases to be decided on Monday, one case involves the question of when companies can challenge federal agency rule-making, while the other two take on challenges to GOP-controlled states trying to control social media platforms, per NBC.

(More US Supreme Court stories.)