One week after a deadline passed for mutinous soldiers in Niger to reinstate the country's ousted president or face military intervention, the junta has not acquiesced. No military action has been taken, and the coup leaders appear to have gained the upper hand over the regional group that issued the threat, analysts say. The West African bloc ECOWAS had given the soldiers that overthrew Niger's democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum until last Sunday to release and reinstate him or they threatened military action. On Thursday, the bloc ordered the deployment of a standby force to restore constitutional rule in Niger, with Nigeria, Benin, Senegal, and Ivory Coast saying they would contribute troops, the AP reports.
But it's unclear when, how, or if the troops will deploy. The move could take weeks or months to set into motion, and while the bloc decides what to do the junta is gaining power, some observers say. "It looks as though the putschists have won and will stay. ... The putschists are holding all the cards and have cemented their rule," said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a think tank. ECOWAS is unlikely to intervene militarily and risk dragging Niger into civil war, he said, adding that ECOWAS and Western countries would instead likely press the junta to agree to a short transition period.
Europe and the US will have little choice but to recognize the junta in order to continue the security cooperation in the region, Laessing said. The July 26 coup is seen by analysts as a major blow to many Western nations, which considered Niger one of its last partners in the conflict-riddled Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert that they could work with to beat back a growing jihadi insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. The US and France have more than 2,500 military personnel in the region and together with other European countries have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance and training Niger's forces. There was still little clarity about what would happen days after ECOWAS announced the "standby" force deployment.
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A meeting of the region's defense chiefs was postponed indefinitely. The African Union is expected to meet Monday on the crisis. But the delay of the defense chiefs' meeting shows that ECOWAS views force as a last resort, said one African analyst. Those with ties to the junta say they are preparing for a fight, especially since the soldiers are unwilling to negotiate unless ECOWAS acknowledges its leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who overthrew the president, as the new ruler. "Whether Bazoum resigns or not, he will never be Niger's president again," said Insa Garba Saidou, an activist who assists the military rulers. On Sunday people marched, biked and drove through downtown Niamey, chanting "down with France" and expressing anger at ECOWAS. "If ECWOAS allows people to attack Niger, it will cross a red line," said resident Saidou Issaka.
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