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Lipstick Sales Are Up. Some Take That as a Warning

The not-so-technical 'lipstick index' tends to crop up in recessions

(Newser) - Makeup sales are up—which, according to a groundhog-shadow-like barometer called the "lipstick index," might spell bad news for the economy. CNN explains that the term "lipstick index" was so named by Estee Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder in 2001. He posited that during the economic downturn in...

Yellen: Signs Point Away From Recession

Treasury secretary expresses confidence about economy

(Newser) - Polls show Americans are feeling a bit better about the US economy lately, per the Wall Street Journal , and that includes Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Asked if the nation will be able to head off a recession while keeping inflation under control, she told Bloomberg , "I think you'd...

Fed Chair Says US May Have Dodged Recession

Congressional Budget Office is also predicting 'soft landing'

(Newser) - The Federal Reserve believes its policies may have helped the US economy avoid recession and achieve a "soft landing," a possibility analysts once saw as remote. In remarks after the latest interest rate rise was announced Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is no longer...

2023 Is Now Seen as a 'Turning Point' for Economy

IMF upgrades its world forecast, thinks a global recession is less likely

(Newser) - A new economic forecast includes what has become a rare thing of late: good news. Or, at least, better news. The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it thinks a global recession probably won't happen, reports the New York Times . A number of factors— including easing inflation, China's...

IMF Chief: Get Ready for 'Tougher' Year Than Last

Kristalina Georgieva warns that one-third of world will be in a recession over next 12 months

(Newser) - Thankful to have kicked 2022 to the curb? According to the head of the International Monetary Fund, we haven't yet escaped last year's economic woes, which will continue to play out in significant ways around the globe. "We expect one-third of the world economy to be in...

Model Puts Chance of Recession at 100%

Projection clashes with Biden's reassurances

(Newser) - A new economic projection contradicts President Biden's hopeful forecast of a minor recession, at worst, ahead for the nation. A Bloomberg Economics model shows the likelihood of a recession beginning at some point before October 2023 at 100%. Until now, the model had the chance of a recession at...

IMF's Gloomy Warning: 'Worst Is Yet to Come'

International Monetary Fund predicts next year is going to be painful around the world

(Newser) - Banker Jamie Dimon isn't the only one who thinks a recession is on the horizon . The International Monetary Fund issued its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, with a bleak takeaway line, per CNN :
  • "In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel

Jamie Dimon: US Recession Likely Within 6 to 9 Months
Jamie Dimon:
Lies Ahead

Jamie Dimon: Recession Lies Ahead

'This is serious stuff,' JPMorgan Chase CEO says, as Fed didn't do nearly enough in time

(Newser) - The US economy is "actually still doing well" right now, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday—but that statement comes with a big "but." Dimon, in an interview with CNBC , continued, "you can’t talk about the economy without talking about stuff in the future—...

Wikipedia: Keep Your Hands Off Our 'Recession' Page

Temporary ban is keeping new and unregistered users from tweaking highly contested topic

(Newser) - Are we or aren't we headed for (or already in ) a recession? Consensus is still hard to come by, and Wikipedia has decided it's not going to be the place where this is all hashed out. NPR reports that the online encyclopedia has partially frozen edits to...

Are We in a Recession? 8 People Will Make the Call

But the obscure Business Cycle Dating Committee likely won't weigh in for months

(Newser) - The GDP shrank for the second quarter in a row, which is one traditional definition of a recession, notes CNBC . It is not, however, the official one. As the Wall Street Journal reports, any such designation would formally come from the National Bureau of Economic Research—and more specifically from...

Inflation Surged 9.1% in June, Even More Than Expected

Economists were expecting a 40-year high of 8.8%

(Newser) - The consumer price index for June is worse than expected—and what was expected was bad. The CPI was up 9.1% year-over-year in June, above economists' prediction of 8.8%. Even that estimate was worse than May's 8.6%. The last time inflation was this high was in...

Commerce Chief: Let's Stop 'Talking Ourselves Into a Recession'

Gina Raimondo says a severe downturn is not inevitable

(Newser) - Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is worried that talk of a recession will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. In an ABC News interview Sunday with George Stephanopoulos on This Week, Raimondo recounted a recent conversation with an unnamed CEO. "He said, 'The economy's strong. Customers are buying. Businesses are...

Biden: Americans Are 'Really, Really Down'

In interview, president says recession isn't inevitable

(Newser) - President Biden said Thursday that the American people are "really, really down" after a tumultuous two years that included the coronavirus pandemic, volatility in the economy, and surging gasoline prices that are slamming household budgets. In an interview with the AP in the Oval Office, the president also said...

What to Do, and Not to Do, as a Recession Looms
What to Do, and Not to Do,
as a Recession Looms
the rundown

What to Do, and Not to Do, as a Recession Looms

Dow drops below 30K as bear market deepens

(Newser) - The stock market actually rose Wednesday in the immediate aftermath of the Fed's decision to raise rates by a whopping 0.75% . Thursday, not so much. Major indexes fell more than 2% in early trading and sent the Dow below 30,000, its lowest level in more than a...

Deutsche Bank Predicts 'Major Recession'

The prediction distinguishes Deutsche as the most pessimistic of major Wall Street banks

(Newser) - In a report issued to clients Tuesday, analysts with Deutsche Bank predicted a "major recession" next year, reports CNN. The bank's analysts based their gloomy forecast on historical analysis of the Fed’s response during periods of high inflation and low unemployment. When looking at its inflation and...

A Classic Warning Sign of Recession Is Flashing

Economists are keeping an eye on yields for 2- and 10-year Treasurys

(Newser) - A wonky-sounding phenomenon in the bond market known as a "yield curve inversion" took place this week, and it's caught the attention of economists. The reason? It just happens to be a classic warning sign that a recession might be in the cards. Details:
  • The flip: The 2-year

Bounce Back for US Economy in 2021 Was a Major One

Nation's GDP saw strongest calendar-year growth since the Reagan years

(Newser) - The US economy grew last year at the fastest pace since Ronald Reagan's presidency, bouncing back with resilience from 2020's brief but devastating coronavirus recession. The nation's gross domestic product—its total output of goods and services—expanded 5.7% in 2021. It was the strongest calendar-year...

COVID Delivered Shortest Recession in US History

Severe downturn officially lasted 2 months, ending in April 2020

(Newser) - Economists have concluded that the pandemic inflicted a deep recession on the US economy last year, but also the shortest one in history. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of such things, declared Monday that the recession lasted all of two months, ending in April 2020, reports...

Britain Wants Workers Back in City Centers

Businesses need the foot traffic, officials say

(Newser) - The British government is encouraging workers to return to their offices amid concerns that the shift to working from home during the coronavirus pandemic is hurting businesses and leaving city centers virtual "ghost towns." Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government plans to roll out a media campaign next...

UK Recession Is Basically the Worst
UK Recession Is
Basically the Worst

UK Recession Is Basically the Worst

Its economy contracted by more than any other major economy in Q2

(Newser) - It's a double whammy for the UK, which as of Wednesday claims not just Europe's worst coronavirus death toll, but also the worst recession of any major economy. Stats released Wednesday show the UK's GDP shrank 20.4% in the second quarter after a 2.2% loss...

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