While the idea of repealing the health-reform measure passed last night has Republicans buzzing nationwide, the actual chances of it happening are tiny, Nate Silver writes. At very least, nothing happens before January 2013, and that’s if President Obama and his veto are out of office. So from there, Silver continues on FiveThirtyEight, the GOP needs:
- To control the House. Given the tide of public sentiment, this could be a fait accompli by 2011.
- 60 senators. Republicans now have 41, and seem likely to gain this year and in 2012, but if they don’t hit 60, Democrats can use the filibuster, which would prevent repeal via reconciliation of the reform measure’s most important points.
- A GOP president come 2013. And with the most likely Republican candidates being Mitt Romney—who can’t win on repeal because Obamacare is so close to his Massachusetts plan—and Sarah Palin—who can’t win, period—this is a tough one.
So, a number? 10% the Republicans repeal it, Silver concludes. (More
health care reform stories.)
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