Teenagers shut out of traditional sportsbooks are finding a back door into gambling-style wagers—prediction markets that regulators haven't fully caught up to yet. Quartz reports that Wall Street analysts and gambling researchers say platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are drawing a wave of 18- to 20-year-olds, a group largely barred from legal sports betting in the US. Truist analyst Barry Jonas, citing HoldCrunch data, says these exchanges now see more volume on college sports than pro sports, and they're especially popular with younger users because of the lighter age restrictions and a broader menu of bets that allows users to gamble on anything from football to politics.
Prediction markets look a lot like the "prop bets" that have troubled college and pro sports, but technically function as trading venues. Users buy and sell contracts that pay out $1 if an outcome occurs, or $0 if it doesn't, with prices reflecting the crowd's belief in how things will play out. "In prediction markets, you're attempting to beat the market belief in the outcome," says Sacred Heart University sport management chair Joshua Shuart—rather than a bookmaker's line. While exchanges can host contracts on politics, the economy, or even the weather, analyst Daniel O'Boyle says most regulated US trading still revolves around sports.
Experts say that accessibility is part of the concern. A Fairleigh Dickinson University study found that 25% of US men under 30 wager on sports—mostly online—and about 10% say they have a gambling problem. Bloomberg reports Kalshi handled a record $1.2 billion in trades tied to the Super Bowl LX, underscoring the popularity. "Prediction markets like Kalshi are borrowing from the creator economy and sports betting UX playbooks to make wagering feel like informed opinion rather than gambling," says David Hampian, a former vice president of marketing at Hard Rock Bet. Regulators and companies have taken little action so far, even as some states challenge the platforms' legality.
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