Fentanyl deaths have been dropping sharply in the US over the last few years, and a new study suggests that China is a big reason. The study in Science points to a "major disruption in the illicit fentanyl trade" that led to a steep drop in fatal overdoses beginning in 2023, reports Axios. Researchers say it appears that Chinese crackdowns on chemicals used to make the drug reduced supplies in the US, Canada, and elsewhere. "This demonstrates how influential China can be and how much they can help us—or hurt us," Keith Humphreys, a co-author of the paper, tells the Washington Post.
Overdose deaths in the US exceeded 100,000 per year in the first years of the Biden administration, but they began to decline in mid-2023 and dropped to about 81,000 in 2024, per the Post. The decline is believed to have continued in 2025, though official numbers won't be out for months. The study notes that other factors played a role, including better addiction treatment—particularly the overdose-reversal drug naloxone—and ramped-up law enforcement efforts on trafficking.
In a statement, the Chinese embassy seemed happy to take credit, saying Beijing's crackdowns have had "remarkable results." China says that between late 2023 and August 2025, it shut down nearly 300 companies. The White House, in a statement that did not address the Science paper directly or the fact that the decline started before President Trump's second term, credited Trump's border and counternarcotics measures and his efforts to pressure China.
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