Historian Allan Lichtman was one of the few big names to predict Donald Trump's win in 2016, part of an impressive track record in which he has correctly called nine of the last 10 presidential contests. In a New York Times video, the American University professor makes his 2024 prediction: "Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States," he declares. Lichtman bases his predictions on 13 factors, including whether it's a sitting president running for re-election, the short- and long-term strength of the economy, charisma, and foreign policy successes and failures, per USA Today.
Eight of his 13 keys currently favor Harris and three favor Trump, with the pair of foreign policy keys up for grabs. "Foreign policy is tricky," he says. But even if both keys end up in Trump's favor, that leaves him with only five, "which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House." For the record, Lichtman thinks President Biden's withdrawal from the race has hurt Democrats' chances, but not enough to tilt the election to Trump. The only race Lichtman has gotten wrong was the 2000 contest between Al Gore and George W. Bush. (More Allan Lichtman stories.)
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