Democrats Lose Edge Over Republicans in Key Metric

GOP pulls roughly even in Pew survey on voter affiliation, erasing gap from 2020
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted Apr 13, 2024 5:40 PM CDT
Democrats Lose Edge Over Republicans in Key Metric
An election volunteer shows an "I Voted" sticker at the Ranchito Elementary School polling station in Los Angeles, Tuesday, March 5, 2024.   (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)

By one basic metric of politics, Republicans have made gains against Democrats since the last presidential election: The Pew Research Center finds that the nation is roughly split between voters who identify as Democrats (49%) and Republicans (48%), reports the Hill. That's a contrast to the lead-up to the 2020 election, when Democrats held an edge of 51% to 46%. However, it's more in line with historical norms.

  • In broad strokes: Republicans "have made significant gains among voters without a college degree, rural voters and white evangelical voters," per the New York Times, while "Democrats have held onto key constituencies, such as Black voters (though numbers are slipping) and younger voters, and have gained ground with college-educated voters."

  • Blacks, Hispanics: The poll of 10,000 registered voters found that the share of Black voters who are either Democrats or lean Democratic dropped from a peak of 91% in 2016 to 83% in 2023, per the Washington Post. Over that same span, the share of Hispanic voters in the Democratic camp dropped from 68% to 61%.
  • Key shift: White voters without college degrees were roughly split between the parties as recently as 2007, but they started shifting toward the GOP when Barack Obama was president, per the Post. Last year, they leaned Republican by a margin of 63% to 33%.
  • Key point: "Both parties are more racially and ethnically diverse than in the past," according to Pew. But demographic shifts result in differences. "The share of voters who are Hispanic has roughly tripled since the mid-1990s; the share who are Asian has increased sixfold over the same period. Today, 44% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are Hispanic, Black, Asian, another race or multiracial, compared with 20% of Republicans and Republican leaners."
(More Pew Research Center stories.)

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