Amid Trump Rout, 'Red Flag' Emerges About November

30% in Iowa say he would not be fit to serve if convicted, potential trouble for him in general election
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted Jan 16, 2024 6:50 AM CST
Trump Won 98 of 99 Counties: A 'Wake-Up Call' for Skeptics
Donald Trump takes the stage at a caucus night party in Des Moines, Iowa, Monday, Jan. 15, 2024.   (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

The 2024 Iowa caucuses are over, at least for Republicans, and pundits are offering their takeaways after former President Trump's rout of his opponents. A sampling:

  • All but one: Trump won 98 of 99 counties, quickly. The "astonishing sweep and speed" is a "massive wake-up call" to those in the GOP who thought it was time to move on from him, writes Mike Allen at Axios. Plus, Ron DeSantis did well enough to survive, thus ensuring that he and Nikki Haley will continue to split the Trump opposition vote for a while, and self-anointed MAGA successor Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out. For Trump, a "perfect night."

  • An opening? Aaron Blake of the Washington Post notes there was not much bad news for Trump, but he points out that about half of Iowa voters chose someone else. Haley (19.1%) won among moderates, those with advanced degrees, those who think Trump legitimately lost in 2020, and those who favor a strong foreign policy, while DeSantis (21.2%) scored with anti-abortion conservatives.
  • Red flag: Similarly, Politico sees a "red flag for the general election" in regard to Trump. More than 30% of caucus-goers said he would not be fit to serve if convicted. "In what is likely to be closely-contested general election, Republicans will need to keep GOPers skeptical of the former president in the fold," reads the story by Adam Wren and Natalie Allison.
  • DeSantis/Haley: Despite his second-place finish, the situation going forward is "bleak" for DeSantis, writes Nate Cohn at the New York Times. "If he can't compete in Iowa, it's hard to imagine where he can." Things are less dire for Haley, Cohn adds. "Haley's strength among moderates and college graduates wasn't enough for second in Iowa, as several late polls suggested, but voters like these will represent a much larger share of later primary electorates."
  • The base: Entrance polls showed that only about one-third of Iowa caucus-goers said they believe President Biden legitimately won in 2020. The upshot is that the "GOP base is pretty much all in" for the former president and his 2020 narratives, per NPR. But, in a similar point to the Politico analysis above, the outlet notes that Trump faces potential trouble in the general election on this point. Notably, a majority of independents have an unfavorable view of him.
(More Iowa caucuses stories.)

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