Final Iowa Poll: It's Going to Be a Blowout

Trump has nearly half the vote locked down ahead of Monday's caucuses
By Polly Davis Doig,  Newser Staff
Posted Jan 14, 2024 8:30 AM CST
Final Poll: Trump Is Crushing It in Iowa
Former President Trump participates in a virtual rally at Hotel Fort Des Moines in Des Moines, Iowa, Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024.   (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Add to Iowa's snowy, icy, frigid misery of late an apparent landslide during its caucuses on Monday: In the latest and last Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll, former President Trump is way out in front, with nearly half—48%—of caucusgoers saying they'll go his way. Well behind in second place is former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley with 20%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 16%—a likely third-place finish that Politico notes is particularly disappointing for a candidate who banked heavily on Iowa and is clearly trailing Trump and Haley in New Hampshire, the next nominating race. The also-rans:

  • Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, 8%
  • Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, 1%
  • Pastor Ryan Binkley, 1%
  • Undecided/other, 7%

The AP takes a look at how Iowa's bitter weather is making "an already unrepresentative process even less representative." Elderly Iowans, the backbone of the caucus, are wondering how they will make it to their sites Monday. Political types are mentally downgrading expected turnout and wondering who a smaller, harder-core electorate will favor. All this gives longtime critics of the caucus even more reason to be critical. "This is no way to begin the election of a president," said Julian Castro, a former San Antonio mayor and federal housing secretary who was a Democratic presidential candidate in 2020, when he called for Iowa to have a less prominent role. "You have to be a die-hard who's willing to trudge through snow and be there for several hours. And if you miss it, your opportunity to vote is gone." More here. (More Iowa caucuses stories.)

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