New Poll Assesses 4 Key Senate Races

Democrats lead in 3, including Pennsylvania, and are deadlocked in Nevada, per 'NYT' data
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted Oct 31, 2022 10:34 AM CDT
New Poll Assesses 4 Key Senate Races
Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democratic candidate for Senate, speaks at Temple University in Philadelphia on Saturday.   (AP Photo/Ryan Collerd)

The midterms are just eight days away, and new polls continue to roll out—including a major one from the New York Times and Siena College. It looks at four key Senate races and finds that Democrats hold slim leads in three, with the last one deadlocked.

  • Arizona: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly leads GOP challenger Blake Masters, 51-45.
  • Pennsylvania: Democrat John Fetterman leads Republican Mehmet Oz, 49-44.
  • Georgia: Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock leads GOP challenger Herschel Walker, 49-46.
  • Nevada: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is in a dead heat with GOP challenger Adam Laxalt, 47-47.

The Hill zeros in on the Pennsylvania results in particular. Yes, Fetterman has a 5-point lead, but it's possible that his debate performance—he struggled in the wake of his stroke—may have changed things. The poll was conducted from Oct. 24-26, and the debate took place after the first days of the poll were in the books. On those two days, most Pennsylvanians considered Fetterman healthy enough to serve, but on the final day, after the debate, a plurality said otherwise, per the Times. Still, even on Wednesday, Fetterman kept a slight lead over Oz in the race.

Politico also weighs in on the current state of the fight to control the Senate and finds that it's a coin toss: "Political forecasters now say that either party could end up with the majority next year, with many strategists arguing the GOP has not yet taken a commanding lead because of its flawed candidates and the still-unknown effect that the transformed debate over abortion could have on voters." The story reports that, in polling averages, candidates in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, and North Carolina are separated by 3 points or less. (More 2022 midterms stories.)

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