Why Indiana Is the Real GOP Primary to Watch

With polls predicting a big win for Donald Trump in New York's GOP primary on Tuesday, the New York Times looks ahead to a state that could make or break his quest to win a majority of delegates: Indiana, which votes on May 3. With Trump expected to win most upcoming primaries in the East, lose in the rural West, and split the delegates in states like Oregon, winner-take-all Indiana remains a toss-up, and Trump will need to win it to have a realistic chance to clinch the nomination before the convention. There haven't been any polls out of Indiana, the Times notes, and while the state's conservative nature may favor Cruz, Trump could win if John Kasich continues to split the anti-Trump vote.

If Trump loses Indiana, even winning California might not be enough for him to win a majority of delegates, the Times predicts. Kasich, meanwhile, has already claimed victory in Indiana, at least by one measure, reports the Indianapolis Star. The state has already selected its 57 delegates to the GOP convention, and while they will be bound to the primary winner for the first ballot, they can vote freely after that, and Kasich's campaign says he has the support of a majority of them. "It shows how flawed the process might be if what they're saying is true, and that the process can be easily manipulated," a spokesman for Trump's Indiana campaign says. (More Election 2016 stories.)