How Tuesday's Voting Could Change the Race

Michigan loss would shock front-runners
By Rob Quinn,  Newser Staff
Posted Mar 8, 2016 5:02 AM CST
Updated Mar 8, 2016 6:23 AM CST
How Tuesday's Voting Could Change the Race
John Kasich acknowledges the crowd after speaking at a rally at Monroe County Community College on Monday in Monroe, Mich.   (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Four states hold Republican contests on Tuesday and two states choose Democrats, but most eyes are on the biggest prize: Michigan. It will be the first big industrial state to vote, and analysts say how it votes will be a key indicator of how both the Democratic and Republican contests will play out in the weeks to come. Mississippi is also holding GOP and Democratic votes, while Republicans alone are voting in Hawaii and Idaho. A roundup of coverage:

  • Fortune takes a close look at all four GOP races and predicts wins for Donald Trump in Mississippi and Idaho, with Ted Cruz a possibility in Hawaii. John Kasich is polling strongly in Michigan, and wins for either him or Trump will set them up nicely for a crucial victory in Ohio a week from now.

  • How well Trump does in Michigan will tell us a lot about his staying power in the race, according to Philip Bump at the Washington Post. Trump has a double-digit lead in the polls and the state is economically stressed, which tends to produce Trump voters, he notes. But if there is a late surge toward Cruz as seen in Louisiana, that could be a sign that Trump's lead isn't safe anywhere.
  • On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders crisscrossed Michigan on Monday before appearing at a town hall event in Detroit, the Guardian reports. Clinton, who has targeted Sanders' stance on the auto bailout, has a 13-point lead in the state, according to the latest Monmouth University poll. Victory would be a huge boost for Sanders, though he has vowed to remain in the race whatever happens.
  • Politico looks at John Kasich's possible route to the nomination, which supporters describe as very tough and rivals describe as fantasy.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight's analysis, Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning in both Michigan and Mississippi. Trump, meanwhile, has a 92% chance of taking Michigan, while Marco Rubio's odds have shrunk from 34% a few weeks ago to under 1% now.
  • The AP recommends viewers keep an eye not just on winners, but on margins of victory should Clinton and Trump both win—and on whether they target rivals or each other in their victory speeches. Another thing to watch for: whether exit margins show that Sanders has been able to win over many minority voters.
  • Trump spent Monday in Mississippi, where he talked to the Clarion-Ledger about the economy and about his "tremendous relationship" with black voters.
(More Election 2016 stories.)

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