Obama Leads by 4%, Lags by 3%, or Both: Polls

Margin of error, here we come: President Obama is up 49% to 46% over Mitt Romney among likely voters in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, a 1-point boost from yesterday's results. But should that leave you too elated or upset:

• The Rasmussen Reports' daily poll has Romney up by 50% to 47%, and says he leads among unaffiliated voters by 11 points.

• Gallup has Obama up by 48% to 47% among registered voters, and Romney up by 50% to 46% among likely voters, in a "seven-day rolling average" of its daily poll.
• Breaking down a few state polls at his Five Thirty-Eight blog, Nate Silver forecasts Obama winning Ohio by 2 points despite having lost ground there. Silver adds that Obama will take Minnesota by 6.8% and has a 59.8% chance of winning Virginia.
• Less scientifically, pollster Dean Chambers has denounced Silver as "a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice." See Chambers' full piece at Examiner.com.

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