Alabama Senate Race Razor Thin

The first polls coming in after sexual misconduct claims against US Senate nominee Roy Moore broke on Thursday aren’t looking good for the GOP hopeful. According to Politico, three flash polls conducted after the Washington Post’s story captured national attention found Moore’s lead shrinking in the Alabama race, while a fourth put Democratic nominee Doug Jones ahead by four percentage points. Conservative-leaning firm JMC Analytics released the latter poll, conducted from Thursday through Saturday, which found Jones ahead of Moore 48%-44%. (A September/October poll from the same firm had Moore up by eight points.) The other polls saw Moore up by two to four percentage points with a greater share of undecided voters reporting.

Per the LA Times, Moore had an eight-point lead in the typically solid red state prior to the claims from four women that Moore had sexual contact with them as teenagers made headlines. (Moore has denied the allegations.) Politico notes that polls conducted after a scandal breaks can be a misleading predictor of a race’s outcome, citing President Trump’s drop in polling after the Access Hollywood tape—in which Trump is heard bragging about sexually assaulting women—was released during the 2016 election. While GOP leaders are distancing themselves from Moore, polling found Republicans in Alabama split on whether to support the nominee in December’s special election. (More Alabama stories.)